David Ewart

Welcome

Welcome to my personal blog. Right now most of my writing will be for my weekly reflections on the lectionary, Holy Textures. But you can expect erratic postings on leadership, the state of the United Church of Canada, brain-mind research, and anything else that catches my fancy.

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Suppose There Really Is A God

To begin, let's suppose there really is a God.

Or, to sharpen the point a bit more, let suppose there really is a world, a universe - "out there" - existing separately and independently of whatever my own personal experience - thoughts / feelings / beliefs / etc. - of it may be.

Allowing that there may be a reality, a something "out there," that is separate from my experience and beliefs is becoming an increasingly non-functioning concept in our current life. Watch or listen to almost any of the now legion talk shows, and you would be hard pressed to believe that ANYTHING matters except what *I* personally think or feel or believe or experience. If *I* think it, then it is real and factual. It is certainly true to my experience.

However, if there really is a reality "out there," separate and independent of my experience of it, then my experience may in fact NOT be an accurate reflection of the thing as it actually is in itself.

For example, how long ago the earth came into being is a reality that exists quite independently of my beliefs about that. This is something about which everyone may have different personal opinions. But everyone may not have their own set of facts. The age at which the earth came into being is inherent to the earth and the universe. And unless we are prepared to give up on the idea that things exist separately and independently of our experience and beliefs about them, then we need to strive to make our experiences and beliefs be as accurate as possible - to be "true" to what is "real." This striving to be true to what is real is the great gift of modern scientific method to humanity. In my humble opinion, religions, at their best, also share this great gift - striving to be true an actual reality "out there."

Which brings me back to where I began: Let's suppose there really is a God. Because if there really is a God, then God exists separately and independently of our thoughts, feelings, experiences, and beliefs about God. My *ideas* about God, are *not* God. My experience of God is not God. My community's 4,000 years of teachings about God are not God. My strongly held core beliefs about God are not God.

Saying this can be something of a shock because I am saying that, for example, my community's 4,000 years of teachings about God may - or may not - be accurate; may, or may not, be true to what is real about God. In fact, given that my community's 4,000 years of teachings about science, medicine, children, women, sexual orientations, etc. have all not been fully true to what is real, I'm pretty sure that at least some of those same teachings have also not been true about the reality of God.

On the other hand, I am also saying that if there really is a God, then who God really is isn't changed just because some - or all - of my *ideas* about God were wrong. There is, I think, a tremendous freedom and relief in knowing that the reality of God doesn't depend on my ideas about God. Doesn't depend on my experiences of God.

If there really is a God, then God is completely free, separate and independent of my opinions, and it means then, that "God" is not merely and idea or a belief about God. It simply is not true we are all entitled to our beliefs about God. Well, yes, we are entitled to our own beliefs, we're just not entitled to say that all beliefs about God are equally valid. If there really is a God, then some ideas about God will be more accurate, more true to what is real about God. (And some ideas about God may in fact be dangerous and harmful.) I think we should be curious and conversational about our different beliefs and not murderous and conversional. And we should all be interested in discovering how to deepen the  truths of what we believe; to bring them into closer alignment with the actual reality of whatever is "out there."

So let's begin by assuming there really is a God.

United Church of Canada People Trends - 2008

I have updated last year's charts with the latest 2008 calendar year data from the 2009 United Church Year Book.

The following are all Adobe PDF documents. To open and read them, you will need the free Adobe READER which you can download from www.adobe.com.

The trend for the last 10 years (1999-2008) is forecast to the year 2025 using Microsoft Excel's TREND function.

This set of charts compares Canadian births, marriages, deaths and population with United Church baptisms, weddings, funerals, and membership. With the exception of a temporary increase in the 1980's when the Baby Boom generation were getting married and having children , the charts show a steady decline of Canadians participating in the United Church since the mid-1960's.

Reports from other churches - and other secular, volunteer organizations - indicate that this trend in wide spread throughout North America - even for evangelical churches. Yes, there are individual congregations that are exceptions to this trend, but overall, all congregations are feeling the impact of the broad cultural change to being "spiritual but not religious."

This set of charts shows selected United Church of Canada people-related data. (Financial data will be added at a later date.)

This set of charts shows the same United Church data for an "average" United Church congregation. In summary, on average, in 2025 a United Church of Canada congregation will have:

• 107 Members,
• 14 Average Weekly Attendance,
• 52 Financially Supporting Households
• 0 New Members Received by Profession of Faith by the year 2020,
• 0 Members in Sunday School by the year 2018,
• 0 Baptisms (All Ages) by the year 2020,
• 0 Weddings by the year 2019
• 4 Funerals

United Church at 100

I've been asked to make the PowerPoint presentation - and video version based on the PowerPoint - available. So here they are. The files are quite large, so will take a long time on a slow connection.

The United Church at 100. Right-Click on this link, and "Save Target As ..." to download a 2007 Microsoft PowerPoint version.

The United Church at 100 - Video.  Right-Click on this link and "Save Target As ..." to download a WMV version. 

Yes, Statistics Really Can Encourage Us To Embrace God's Mission

Below is my response to another colleague, Barry Morris, as part of an on-going email exchange within Vancouver Burrard Presbytery.

> I wonder about leaning as much as we are prone to, though, on statistics:
> are there stats, pray tell, on "conviction" or lack of, I
> wonder? Stats may give us a bit of a sense of what has come to
> be and is now in the past, as "trend" or pattern; but can stats
> really encourage us to embrace and risk -- faithfully,
> prophetically -- what convictions of God's mission summons us
> to? I wonder....

Barry, the answer to your questions above is, "Yes."
 
I don't have them at hand, but of course there are surveys that measure "conviction."
 
But more importantly it is precisely statistics that make us aware that that homeless person over there is not just the victim of personal life circumstances, but in fact is part of a growing trend - which might then lead to asking, "Why are there so many homeless people?"
 
It is statistics that reveal systemic issues and transform the personal into the political.
 
You yourself don't quote statistics, but you implicitly use them all the time when you raise issues of various imbalances between various groups.
 
I myself try to quote statistics carefully because I am aware of the power imbalance between those comfortable with such data, and those are immediately gripped by math phobia.
 
But just as it is important not to dismiss the question, "Why are there so many homeless people?" nor to use fantasy-world reasoning to address it; I believe it is crucial for us as a church to really ask ourselves, "Why has church attendance declined?" and not use fantasy-world reasoning to explain it away.
 
Church attendance HAS declined and it ain't coming back. But if we believe it is important to evolve a FORM of being sustained by our environment so that God's dream for justice might continue to live through us, then this is an urgent question that needs to be addressed now.
 
In my not so humble opinion, justice-seeking is a fruit, not a root, of Christian community.
 
And while I'm no fan of endless navel gazing, I believe if we don't address these issues of how to be sustained within our present culture, then it will not be us who will be around to seek justice.

Sincerely,
David Ewart, Minister
Capilano United Church

Drawing Sustenance From What There Is More Of In Our Environment

Below is my response to my colleague, Bruce Sanguine, as part of an on-going email exchange within Vancouver Burrard Presbytery.

> What I hear you saying, David, when you say we haven't done anything wrong,
> is that there is a systemic dimension to this that you've alluded to.

That is correct Bruce. If the statistics were that everyone else was doing fine, then that would indicate that indeed there was something specific to US that needed to be looked at. However, the data (and I am reporting on news that comes via the Christian Century) is that there is now an across-the-board decline in worship attendance (though more severe in Canada than the USA) - and in many other "old-line" volunteer organizations.

However, you are also correct in that WE do have problems in how we have responded to this change in our culture - in our environment.

Instead of adopting ways of drawing sustenance from what there is more of in our environment - we have adapted - maladapted, actually - to what there is less of. Worship attendance (i.e., people's participation) has steadily declined for 50 years, and we have responded NOT to the loss of people - but to the loss of their offerings by adapting relying on rental income.

This strategy has worked. We are still functioning even though we are dramatically under-peopled relative to our building capacities. But this is a mal-adaptation that is beginning to bear its unsavoury fruit.

For one. Many of those buildings that provided the excess rental capacity are now 50 to 60 years old and in need of major capital repairs (roofs, boilers, drainage, etc.). But many congregations no longer have the people, the skills, the money, or the hope for the future to undertake these demanding / draining projects.

For another. We have developed an ethos that is adept at decline. We sometimes even laud decline as "the faithful remnant." And we have become experts at critiquing our culture - pointing out what is wrong in it.

And. We have had a catastrophic failure of imagination - failure to image that God is actually also present in the culture - even in the changes we most harshly critique. If we cannot figure out how to be church with sports and shopping on Sunday and everyone connecting via online social networking - then we are dead.

And. Like many others, I'm prepared to lay some of the blame for our maladaptation onto unforeseeable consequences of the 1925 formation of our church.

Creating a nation-based church meant that we cut ourselves off from organic relationships with other nations and nationalities, and so we have have no natural connections with subsequent immigration. We are mired in a white-bread, middle class milieu.

And the mish-mash decision-making structures that were adopted have left us with an impossible to manage organization where those who have authority have no real liability for the consequences of their decisions; and those with responsibilities have no authority.

We give authority only to groups - some of which exist only for a week every three years - and all of which have revolving membership and therefore lose institutional memory / focus / purpose. Long-term strategic planning, implementation, and evaluation is nigh-on impossible in this scenario.

Meanwhile, those individuals who are the front-line workers have no authority.

Every level of our church is riddled with case studies of in-the-trenches folks frustrated because they can do nothing without the approval of a GROUP who do not have the passion / commitment / experience / knowledge to be fully aware of what's at stake, and who will not have to bear the consequences of their decisions, and so can - and do - make terrible, real-world decisions for fantasy-world reasons. (And I stress the word "group" because the issue is NOT the goodness of the individuals in the group. I myself am often part of such groups and am frustrated by the stupidity of me being required to make decisions like this.)

I love the life that is embodied in our church. And I believe that life is worthy of continuing into the future.

But I am very aware that life continues from one generation to the next only when the FORM which embodies that life adapts itself so as to draw sustenance from what there is more of in its ever-changing environment. And for reasons I've named above, I'm not optimistic that we have the structures for such adaptive change.

But as I near retirement, I must say that I am committed more than ever to continuing to discern how to align my life with God's presence in our environment, and be sustained by that - even though the form of it feels alien and strange, I believe the life found there will feel strangely familiar.

Sincerely,
David Ewart, Minister
Capilano United Church

Click here for an easy to print or email Adobe PDF version of this post. 

The United Church of Canada at 100

A while back I published a note with data from the United Church Year Book up to the year 2007, and what it might look like if the trend for the past decade, 1996 - 2007, continued unchanged to our 100th Anniversary in 2025.

Through the wonders of technology, I have been able to make a video slide show and have uploaded it to YouTube. You can view it by clicking here -The United Church at 100 (Revised May 7, 2009).

Let me know what you think by posting your comments below.

Or join the livelier conversation over at The United Church of Canada's WonderCafe.

If the technology has worked, I'll eventually post a longer version of the above with a more detailed analysis and comments. Stay tuned. 

United Church of Canada People Trends

As of 2007
Using Data from the 2008 Year Book
Prepared by David Ewart, www.davidewart.ca, February, 2009.

Click here for an easy to print or email Adobe PDF document of this post.

Membership (Line 16)

1965 was the peak of Membership in the United Church of Canada.

From 1945 to 1965, our Membership increased by 42% from 750,000 to 1,064,000.

If we had been able to maintain the 1945-1965 rate of growth from 1966 to 2007, our Membership would have been 1,825,000 by 2007. Our reported Membership for 2007 was 545,000 a decline of 50% from 1965.

Compared to where we thought we’d be in the 1960’s, we are missing 1,300,000 members. Or, to put it another way, our congregations should have 3 times more members and attendance than we currently have.

However, when considered as a percentage of the total Canadian population, our Membership actually declined from 1949 to 1965, from 6.0% to 5.4%. Thus, even during our post-war “boom,” we were not keeping pace with the overall population increase and were already declining as a church.

Future Trends: If our membership follows the same trend as it has for the past 10 years, then by the years 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025 our Membership will be: 498,000, 421,000, 343,000 and 266,000 respectively – a further loss of 279,000 members, or 50%. See Chart 1.  

In 2007, our Membership is 1.6% of the Canadian population. If the trend for the past 10 years continues unchanged, then by the years 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025 our Membership will be: 1.4%, 1.1%, 0.8%, and 0.4% respectively. See Chart 2.

 

 

 

 

Congregations (Preaching Places) (Line 1)

From 1945 to 2007, the number of Congregations has declined from 6,780 to 3,360 – a loss of 3,420 Congregations, or 50%.

Future Trends: If the trend for the past 10 years continues unchanged, then by the years 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025 the number of Congregations will be: 3,225, 2,980, 2,735, and 2,490 respectively – an additional loss of 930 Congregations, or 27%. See Chart 3.

Total Church School Membership (Line 21)

From 1961, when it was at its peak, to 2007, the Total Church School Membership (Officers, Teachers, Scholars) has declined from 757,000 to 80,700 – a loss of 676,300 Church School Members, or 90%.

Future Trends: If the trend for the past 10 years continues unchanged, then by the years 2010, 2015, and 2018 the Total Church School Membership will be: 55,800, 16,900, and 0 respectively – a total loss of our Church Schools in less than 10 years time. See Chart 4.  

Average Weekly Attendance (Line 20)

Data for Average Weekly Attendance at Sunday Services of Worship was first gathered in 1977. From 1984, when it was at its peak, to 2007, the Average Attendance has declined from 403,700 to 204,400 – a loss of 199,300 worshippers, or 50%.

Future Trends: If the trend for the past 10 years continues unchanged, then by the years 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025 the Average Weekly Attendance will be: 179,700, 134,300, 88,900, and 43,600 respectively – an additional loss of 160,800 worshippers, or 80%. See Chart 5.

It's Not About Leadership

Click here for an easy to print or email Adobe PDF version of this note.

I've got a shelf full of books about leadership. In fact it is now about 50 years since I took my first leadership training to become a counselor at YMCA Camp Stephens. Since then I've done dozens of other trainings, including a Masters degree.

And maybe it's just because I'm such a thick-headed, slow learning failure, but I've come to the conclusion that what ails us is NOT leadership. Or at least, its not about having new, improved leaders.

Tell Yourself a Self-Correcting Story

Click here for an easy to print or email Adobe PDF version of this note.

Perhaps I'm just making this up - reading into the Bible something that isn't actually there - but one of the things I love about the stories in the Bible is that they are self-correcting.

That is, just when the Holy Spirit has gifted me with a blinding revelation of THE Truth, THE Way, and THE Life, another part of the Bible will correct my unqualified self-confidence.

After many decades of resisting the notion, I am becoming a believer in the Calvinist Doctrine of Total Depravity. That is, even my best and "purest" ideas will always be faulty, always be limited, always overlook some crucial point, always be tainted with self-justification and self-righteousness; never be fully and only reflecting God's glory and purposes.

That is why the story I tell myself needs to be a self-correcting story. That is, it must contain within itself, the seeds of its own correction. Because the story I tell myself will inescapably and unavoidably contain within itself the seeds of my own (and my world's) self-destruction.

The Long Emergency Update

As I keep musing about the state of the United Church of Canada, I keep adding things to my article / sermon, The Long Emergency.

You can open an the Adobe PDF version of this update by clicking here.

The most recent change is a new footnote where I add some cautions about the successful resiliency by which the congregation has met the challenges of the past 40 years.

-----

The caution about the successful resilience and creativity is 5 fold:

First. The successful resilience has addressed only two of the three crucial ABC’s of congregational life: Building maintenance and Cash. It has failed to respond to Attendance.

Second. The result is that many congregations now have buildings and budgets that are way out of proportion to their actual attendance. When this happens, buildings and budgets become burdens instead of assets. They require a disproportionate amount of the congregation’s volunteer time and effort. Fewer and fewer resources are available for supporting and developing attendance.